What is happening
Fratelli d’Italia and the Democratic Party remain broadly at their late-July levels. Futuro Nazionale continues to grow and, for the first time, is ahead of Forza Italia, while the Five Star Movement stands at 12.5%. Azione is at 3.3%, its highest level in six months. The poll average includes surveys conducted from 2 to 16 September and weighted on 17 September.
Why is it on the Radar?
According to the article, the centre-right’s figure is below the 42% threshold for the majority bonus under the “Stabilicum,” which has been approved by the Senate and still requires final approval by the Chamber. The latest YouTrend simulation would give the majority to the progressive broad coalition. Futuro Nazionale’s potential inclusion in the centre-right could alter the balance, but the party is not currently part of that coalition.